Fisherman Slam

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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

About Fisherman Slam

As of today, submissions for the 2026 iGB’s Most Influential Women list are open! We are once again looking for nominations that highlight all facets of the sector, and the women who are championing change and acting as leading forces within their company, or the sector more broadly.

Please provide as much detail and insight as possible on the person/s you are nominating. The more information and background we receive, the clearer the picture of their career and achievements can be.

While it’s tempting to use AI to help you write a submit, we please ask that you avoid doing so, as once again, the more personal an entry is, the better we can judge it across our key criteria.

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The conclusion of the Yahoo Finance deal comes as there is more talk about the use of prediction market data in journalism. Operators such as Polymarket and rival Kalshi have touted their markets as a way to get real-time information on how likely future events are to occur. 

However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms. 

At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives.