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“The legislation mandated the regulation of the sector, which did not happen in the previous administration,” he explained. “We came into government with the sector operating for almost five years.

“We saw that they had entered football and advertising, and they have political and economic weight. Understanding that Congress would not prohibit the activity, we decided to put the brakes on and establish the rules.

“It’s not that I want to collect taxes because I need the money. I want to collect taxes for the sake of fairness: if a company sells cars, it pays taxes; if it sells drinks, it pays taxes. If it’s authorised to operate, it has to pay.”

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Tabcorp Holdings Limited, one of Australia’s largest wagering and media companies was also fined more than AU$2.7 million earlier this year. ACMA clarified that Tabcorp had violated telemarketing and spam regulations over a 16-month period. 

It had sent over 217,000 marketing emails and SMS messages within a 16-day window to customers who had explicitly unsubscribed. ACMA regarded the volume and timing of these messages as significant enough to warrant enforcement action. 

In response to the penalties, Dabble Sports has agreed to a two-year court-enforceable undertaking. It has obliged the company to commission an independent review of its compliance systems. Dabble must develop a board-approved plan to implement these changes with appropriate resources.

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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.