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Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.
“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”
This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.
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Earlier this year, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi called illegal betting a “scourge that corrupts society” and emphasised a move towards tougher enforcement.
According to Çiftçi, the rapid growth of digital payments and cryptocurrencies has transformed illegal betting into a major conduit for money laundering.
“Casinos, junkets, cryptocurrencies and underground banking are the most critical parts of the money laundering infrastructure that fuels international organised crime,” he said at the time. “The global gambling market will reach $205 billion in 2030.”
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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.
A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.
